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Closing Bell

News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day. New. (CC) (Stereo)

NETWORK

DURATION
01:00:00

RATING

SCANNED IN
San Francisco, CA, USA

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Comcast Cable

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Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

VIDEO CODEC
mpeg2video

AUDIO CODEC
ac3

PIXEL WIDTH
528

PIXEL HEIGHT
480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Us 9, Europe 8, Apple 5, U.s. 5, Ecb 3, United States 3, Steve 3, Italy 3, America 3, Mario Draghi 3, Kevin 3, China 3, Mario Monti 2, Ben Bernanke 2, Charles Schwab 2, Maria Bartiromo 2, Phillips 2, Bob 2, Pandora 2, Jackie 1,
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  CNBC    Closing Bell    News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide  
   through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day....  

    September 7, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EDT  

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how about driving 85 miles per hour. this is a stretch of road between austin and san antonio. it will be the highest speed limb and it will be a toll road. tex crew collecting a fast payment of up to $100 million, or a percentage of the toll revenues. looks like fun, thanks for watching street signs, have a safe and happy tweekd. >> welcome to the closing bell. maria bartiromo is in italy and later in the show she will give us a neat peak of what to expect from her interview. >> and i'm bill griffith.
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stocks not able to pick up any steam on the heals of yesterday's big rally. the u.s. creating huer jobs than anticipated. not just in august, but june and july were revieszed downward as well. stocks could be worse off if these weak numbers didn't make wall street more convinced that the fed would move with a monetary stimulus to revive the economy in some way. >> here is where we stand, the dow jones is lower by 9.5 points. the nasdaq is still -- i spoke too soon, it had been slightly positive -- >> give it another couple minutes. >> 3134, the s&p is still in
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positive territory. >> it's like the weather in hawaii, you don't like it now? just wait it will get better. a bailout may be a fore gone conclusion, but is this likely to happen because our economy is not better -- >> we have steve leisman and rick santelli. the jobs report was not pretty, are we still maintaining the levels that we've got because of hopes of the central bank acting next week. >> yeah, i think it's a global liquidity, and i think the behavior all argue for that premise.
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steve tough to find silver linings but they revised june and july as well. >> yeah, it was pretty uniform, normally you find some that tell you look at this this way or that way. the only thing i can find good about it is most of the job losses were concentrated. manufacturing on one hand and government on the other. manufacturing was a snap back. i just want to show you this graph we put together here. this shows the range of estimates. the blue line is the median and the green is the actual. did they miss by a lot, no, 96,000 is a lot weeker than the
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125 -- i bring this up because some people were quite a bit higher and there was a question if there was a higher number on the street. >> steve, you said even if this was a good number today, then the fed was acting next week. >> there is no guarantees, but i think they will act. if you read what fed chairman bernanke said and concluded but i think they're ready to go next week. >> peter, your blog after that report came out said ben's b 52 is on the way. >> yes, i was convinced after jackson hole it was moving again. he knew if he wanted to temper market expectations that would be a perfect venn view and he defended the previous qe. that set up market expectations for me for a qe move next week.
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>> so larry, in the past, we have seen financial assets rising, is it all in for stocks? >> they're ledding indicator, not of economic growth as we saw in the weak jobs report, but they're a leading indicator of that jobs growth. so the answer is if you're looking for a stimulus induced trade, you got it, that was the trade. if you want to reposition, look for upside opportunity, just like we talked about last week, look in europe, china, asia in particular. that's where the upside is. >> larry, i think you make another point and that is that a lot of the stimulus may be baked in already. i don't think it will be a surprise to the u.s. stock market if the fed goes next week. i wonder if some of the markets may have some of that in the upside. >> rick, what do you think?
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>> i think it's really hard to tell. there was a time you could look at the market and get an idea. i think the market is so far disconnected from fundamentals, they can't divine what's going on in ben bernanke's brain. >> in the u.s., it's priced for a safety trade. if we look at currency, we see that potential weakness of the dollar and the strength in the euro, and we see the same for europe and asia. it's a totally different market and pricing mechanism. >> peter, i would maintain if you look at a chart of this week in the markets, the european central bank had a greater impact on the markets than our expectations of what our own fed may do, do you agree? >> there's no question i think that's been the case for months now. the world has been worried about europe and where that goes, even more the u.s. economy. europe has been driving the bus,
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and any hint at a move by the ecb, that's what market is focused on, it's the we're mean recession that had people so cared. like you said, ecb moves have been the main focus on the markets. >> larry says absolutely, there is a short-term trade here, what do you think? do we get to the point where if they do something we see selling on the news, how do you play it out? >> what we're seeing today is rotation into the inflation trade again that is lagged to the rest of the market in the last few months. if i'm going to be in the market, commodities, reinflation of the dollar. >> i have to ask michelle what i think is the most undiscussed
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question of next week is what will the der man court rule next week? >> we'll find out on wednesday. >> i won't let you off the hook, that's the key next week. >> i'm told 80% chance that they will vote and decide in the favor of what everybody wants them to do. >> i got an answer out of you. >> well done, steve. you're right, we got to go. >> thanks, guys, nice chart by the way, steve. kudos to the graphics department. >> i know your real answer,ly not make you say it on the air. we'll see if this market can mount a comeback of some kind as we head toward the close right now. >> stick around, we're just getting starting on this big friday edition of the "closing bell." coming up, in a fix, is the
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employment picture so break it may not matter who is in the oval office come january? and gun play, some weapon manufacturers are up as much as 250%. we'll tell you who they are and how to arm your portfolio. also, there is something about maria, she's on the ground in italy with the very latest news on what the world's leaders are saying about the state of the global economy.
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welcome back, about 50 minutes left in the trading session. time for a quick market academic. if you're just checking in, the market is not doing much. this morning's disappointed job numbers throwing the rally into neutral. if you're a bull, you would say
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we have not had a big sell off. but that's -- true, that has not been the case, we're down 11 points right now. we're still on course for solid gains. telecom issues have been lagging. the materials are moving higher as well. >>. >> all in all, the u.s. saw only 96,000 jobs added in august. that's below the 120,000 that was expected, which at this point in the recove ri should be stronger. as for the unemployment rate, that number falling to 8.1% because more people gave up looking for work. >> gaining us right now, we have former council and chairman laura tyson. she is not optimistic in the
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jobs picture any time soon. what ails this labor market. why is corporate america so hesitant to hire people these days? >> i think there are two things going on. in the corporate or private sector, i think there is a lot of uncertainty. it's uncertain because of the slow down in the global economy, because of the fiscal cliff, because of europe, if you're looking at that kind of picture, expanding now with weak demand and uncertainty is not a good idea. the other thing not remarked upon enough in the discussion is the public sector employment. really, what the corrections, all of the downward revisions in the last couple months were -- the thing lagging here substantially relative to any other recovery period we have seen, is public sector employment which delined more than any other sector in this recovery period. so, if you compare this recovery to the recovery from 2001,
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private sector growth was stronger than it was. what has been really different is pub public sector employment. >> and so many governments are required to have budgets in their constitution. a lot of people would argue that fewer private sector job social security what the country needed at this point. >> they might say that, i'm not in that example, but even for those who say it, then, they need to pay attention to the fact that when they're bemoaning the weak job's report, they have to understand that that is because the public sector employment has been declining. the private sector, if you look from the recovery period from june 2009 until now, that has been better than it was out of
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the 2001 recession. we had a much deeper hole, i don't disagree with that. so, it is important we have that distension. >> we agree it's going to be the private sector then that will get us out of this hole, what will it take? i think of the finance official in germany that said they disagree with what the ecb is doing now with the bond buying that you can't solve a fiscal crisis with a monetary problem. we have a fiscal and monetary problem here in the united states. what will solve the problem right now? so far the fed doesn't seem to be able to create so many jobs right now. >> what bernanke said last week and i agree with him and the evidence points in this direction is the main reason we have an 9.1% unemployment is because of weak demand. if you're thinking about monetary or fiscal policy, on the fiscal side, it comes from
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tax cutting, spending increases, or both, and we have to worry about that. on the monetary side, what monetary authorities can do is reduce interest rates and try to reduce rates across a broad set of assets through qe policies. the fiscal and monetary side are trying to stimulate demand, and demand is missing to great stronger momentum. >> they're pushing on a string, rant they? >> the fed has the capability to act right now, and i think always, you know, again chairman ber knack key admitted that this policy tool is not a particularly strong tool. >> ben bernanke said that he creating two million jobs. they did analysis and said if not for what we had done, there would be 2 million fewer jobs in the united states.
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>> exactly he said based on a whole host of studies done around the country that essentially the recovery would have been weaker without the fed policy -- >> do you agree? >> i completely agree, i think the record is clear, i think that two million nur is very strong. >> so do you think it's disingenuous that so many people said that he had created 4.5 million jobs? should we take away two million of those? >> i think the fiscal policies of the federal government and monetary policy of the central reserve helped the private sector create 4.6 million jobs in the last 30 months of private sector job growth. the economy creates the jobs.
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the monetary and fiscal authorities provide support. the president has been thwarted numerous times by his discussions. he has given discussions about what should be done. there is another study that suggests if all of the president's american jobs act proposals of last september had been in place this year, we would have a million more jobs, and we would have more demand coming into the private sector to support those jobs. >> last question very quickly. how long will it take? they were talking this week in charlotte about giving this time. in your view, to get us back to -- you know, full employment is still far down the road, but to get back to a more stable employment picture in the united states, how long will that take? >> it's important to say that we have to say where we think that is. goil to bernanke here again, he said last week we're between 2 and 2.5 percentage points below
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what you think of as full employment. so 5.5 or 6, and we're over eight. now, i believe that the right set of policies, a policy that was a bipartisan long run reduction policy with policies that don't take us away from the fiscal cliff with qe, that can speed up the pace, but we do have a deep hole we are digging out of. the good news is the private sector continues to expand, we now have 30 consecutive months and we would like the pace to be picked up. if the european situation clears a bit, everyone is looking to
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see if the plols work. i think it could be very important in terms of boosting the group. >> we have a market flash right now, what's going on? >> we're watching shares of hess. they're up on the news of a billion dollar asset sale. now, the purchaser ongcv, are looking to close on a deal later this year, watch those shares, they're up 3.7%. >> thank you. >> 38 minutes before the closing bell. the nasdaq is lower by three. >> forget samsung or google. what is apple doing that has pandora stock down 17% today?
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it's not exactly music to pandora's ears. >> i love the pun. here is another one, gunshots have been shot out of a cannon, but why? and is it too late to take aim at these stocks? ask me.
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>> take a look at pandora's stock today. it's all because of apple. julia is in los angeles. >> apple wants to make money off of when users use the devices which include listening to pandora. a preinstalled apple radio app would pose a more serious threat compared to others. pandora's free with ad streaming dominates the online radio market. news of apple's interest in this space is being called a negative saying it's surprising
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considering their very high royalties. but apple is interested because it wants to keep all music listening in it's eco system. the mobile revenue lags pandora's and an e-marketer says it predicts that pandora adds will grow more than three times. neither apple or pandora will comment on this news that apple is interested in moving into this space. >> julia, spotify is not publicly traded, but would they face the same challenges? >> i think any time a giant like apple moves into your territory if is a bad thing. so far, apple has been so
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focused, i think it has allowed companies like pandora and spotify to grow. i think the entry of apple would definitely prove a challenge. >> got it, thank you. with shares of pandora getting pounded in the wake of this news let's talk numbers on pandora today. we have patty edwards. patty, does this -- how serious of a threat do you think this is? >> if you're looking at this as a trade, there may be a trade here, if you're looking at it as a fundamental investment, you need to be paying attention.
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look at it this way, apple has not only wrapping in the sale of music and everything else, but on top of that they could be using your genius. they could use that to customize streams for me. it's a huge difference in the amount they will have to pay for that. those things considered, i this with pandora you have to be very call your attention on that for the long run. the one thing that could happen would be a take out. i'm not going to invest in something on the possibility of a take out. >> let's see what they say, jc, and let's compare to apple as well. we have pandora, then we'll show apple. who do you like better, goleith
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or david? >> it's surprising, you see deline kleining lower highs. people started looking at this, the stock started making a slightly higher high, and one piece of bad news today talks the stock back blow that trend line. >> apple is much better. i like this chart better. the really is husbander history does not always repeat unless, but it does rhyme. they consolidated healthy, and at the end of the year, we saw a consolidation. if you look at this line, the same thing. we had a nice healthy run, we made new highs, took some profits, moved sideways, now
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we're breaking out to new highs and the keys is looking for the round numbers at targets. that's why we like apple going for this target. >> thank you, good to see you both, thank you for your thoughts today. >> the dow is lower by 11 points, and we have 30 minutes until the closing bell. [ siren ] >> that was the emergency siren. first it was fedex, now intel cutting their growth outlook. and maria bartiromo is in italy preparing for a interview. even before the interview test getting firsthand intelligence on what's happening there that could impact us here. and tune in monday for maria's
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oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.
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welcome back, intell has been a drag on the dow today thanks to an unexpected warning. >> the stock is down a buck or about 4% on the day. you said earning wills be less than expected. expecting revenue now of 13 .2 billion plus or minus 300 billion. >> absolutely. >> it's not just intell taking down estimates, you remember federal express earlier this week had things to say as well.
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they would have their first quarterly earnings doe klein. >> so these are some of the reasons that peter ferrarh says another recession is around the corner. >> the chances for recession next year are 100%. it's enacted in present law that jan one there will be increases in the top tax rate of virtually every major federal tax. the president is refusing to renew them for the -- >> what if they solve the fiscal cliff, and this we don't have a guarantee recession. but capital gains tax rate, the tax on corporate dividends would
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triple, the medicare payroll tax. >> that doesn't have much to do with intel and fedex at this point. >> i think it does, people don't want to invest. creating and expanding businesses for hiring. i think it's the inventives that are the big problem. >> rich, you have to admit there is a lot of uncertainty out thereto especially in corporate mark because they are so uncertain about the future of fiscal policy from the government. yet you're still positive on the economy, why? >> it's in conservative's interests like peter to cry armageddon, fiscal tax cliff. so the question to me is are we in a recovery. when you visit places in this country from the hills of iowa
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to the steel plants in ohio, there is a recovery in this country -- >> could they be derailed though if we go over the fiscal cliff? that's what the fear is. that the tax policy and the spending increases that kick in could derail this recovery. >> conservatives are playing that card because they're hoping for a certain result. >> it's corporations that don't want to hire, witness the weak job growth. i don't care which political side you are, the question is are we going to be detailrailed. >> we're on the uptick of a positive recovery. it doesn't help to keep saying uncertainty uncertainty. what's better is if we had done something about it. we would be saying today,
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likely, that we have 1.9 million more jobs. i'm personally not one to play into all of the drama doomsday that people like better do, having just visited in wyoming and -- >> but if they don't solve the fiscal cliff, taxes are going up and the government will cut spending more, will that be negative for the economy? >> it will not help, no. they must solve it. >> i'm just trying to understand where you're coming from. >> absolutely. >> at the same time, better, we're seeing one of the big fears is what will happen to the debt crisis in europe as we continue to play that video. mario monti taking critical steps to solve that problem, doesn't that help us over in the united states. that's one of the big uncertainties we have faced so far. >> what drives the economy is american policy and it's wrong headed. we have the worst recovery since
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the great depression because obama has done everything the opposite of what they need to do to get the economy growing. instead of cutting tax rates he's raising tax rates. >> he is not raising tax rates. >> i know, i know -- >> i how did this happen? >> the conventions are over, guys, we have to grow the economy and jobs here. >> this was supposed to be about intel and fedex. don't get me wrong, it was fun. >> i'm so sick -- we ask an economic question and we get a political answer, not good. >> they're often related. >> i admit it, not good though. 20 minutes left and the dow still down eight points. >> today market could have been worse. how long can central bankers keep propping up our stock market. >> are you ready for some
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the weak job's report out this morning makes a strong argument for more fed stimulus action next week, maybe, but is now the right time to put more money to work in stocks, or should investors wait and see if the market holds up in a rough economy. we have david with us, kevin, and bob. david, a lot of people think because of today's job number that we will get stimulus from the fed next week, does that
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mean buy today? >> you have seen buy today, you have seen silver and gold move up, because a fed move would be inflationary? >> correct. the exxon mobile, the energy -- we accumulate stocks here. that having been said, this is not the grand solution, and the fact that the numbers from the jobs, and the grass real earnings will be down. so buy them because it's hurting consumption. next friday is the retail sales number that will be big because resail sales has gasoline and automobiles. >> and back to school is strong as well. kevin, what do you do with this market right now?
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>> we cut back a little bit in terms of our expectation for bonds at these levels. i think that equities look more appealing because what happened yesterday, the european central bank, are many of the stale risks that markets have been considered about were taken off of the table. there's a lot of improvement for the attitude out of injury. and we think we're on a process thwarts recovery there. as far as qe 3, i will shade to less likely that we will get it at the next meeting, but i think you'll have more jawboning, an extension of the pledge to keep rates low, and you should expect to have some quantitative easing coming up over the next several months. >> bob, what are you hearing with this job's number out today, a lot of people say so weak that guarantees may be that the fed moves next week. >> the reaction in the market is not encouraging if you believe
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qe is helping the stock market. what's keeping things up is china announcing a infrastructure project. there were people who didn't know if they would do that. that was a surprise. material and energy stocks have moved up. qe 3 is baked in. the markets are not moving, and they believe the german constitutional -- >> if it's baked in and they move next week, are we seeing selling on the news? today is the day, look at the market reaction. we're really not doing much. chew in a is what moved our market. the commodity stocks moved on china. i think there is a lot of stuff baked into the markets. it would help if the fundamentals have ever improved and if qe 3 works. >> david, a couple weeks ago,
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you were talking about putting some money to work in europe. >> sometimes we get it right once in a blue moon, this was a blue moon month, bill. >> there was compelling evidence to add some to europe. mario draghi, one of the great numbers is spain's yields dropping blow h 6%. a good thing there. good sign. >> what mario draghi did, took catastrophe off the table, anything more than that? >> no, and major catastrophe, coming from a word that means downturn. he took that off the table, but crisis, which is also a greek
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word, this is not -- structural reform is needed. i love the way the market is not doing anything. it's saying to the fed, let me see your cards next thursday on the 13th when they have the end of the fmoc meeting, they're seeing what do you have now. >> it's the show me market. kevin, thanks for joining us, bob we'll see you in a bit as well. >> we have about 12 minutes left in the this session. the nasdaq is lower by nearly two. >> are actions by central banks to bail out economies around the world doing more harm than good? >> there is no substitute for good fiscal policy, you can't expect bankers to bail us out all the time. is he sfligt. >> later, we're going to target gun stocks. >> another pun. >> the firearm makers have been red hot, but they may be ready to come crashing down to eithar.
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first walmart did it, then toys r us expanded their lay away. >> the next one in the chain is k-mart. they're waiving fees that shoppers have to pay to join the pay over time program. it was $10 for the 12-week program. sears is up on this news today, they own k-mart, and it's the competition in the field right now. >> thanks, jackie. the housing bubble may have started bursting in 2006, but we were warned years earlier. all of the signs were in the "new york times." >> this was brought to our attention by our former colleague john nan wells. look at this article he tug up
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about fannie mae and freddie mac loosening up. fannie maes taking on significant risk, and if they run into drought, it could prompt a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980s. >> you included this in your book. >> yes, there was several arguments back then that went into what the loosening of it would mean, it was an unintended consequence and their talking after the people that were just a notch below, they were not talking about going down further
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which is what happened as companies reached more and more to achieve profitability. >> it started with good intentions with a understanding that there was a trade off in risks and costs, but everybody thought they would be manageable in the long run and you should accept that trade off. guess what? >> and steven holmes was exactly right if you find it. in that column, he was right on target with his prognostication. >> and this issing if you have to ask all the time, in any kind of situation, the risks are in the future, and we don't know what they will be, but we think they are manageable, does that sound familiar? i'm not saying with will have tremendous inflation -- >> i don't know who all of these
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people are around us. >> it's so crowded. >> maybe kim kardashian is back. >> we'll be back in a moment to recap the day. >> and after the bell, wings and nachos are scoring touchdowns with fans every season, but this year's drought will spike the price tag. bob...
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oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters
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copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. like in a special ops mission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account.
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all right, a couple minutes left here. very quickly, three charts i will show for the week. the dow, and you'll see that the importance -- the biggest importance was the ecb. the biggest move was on thursday, and we're pretty much holding those gains as we move into positive territory. even bigger response came from the spanish bond market. down 18% today to 5.6%. and it was just 7.5% a couple
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months ago. and finally gold, bill gross said anything mario draghi does would be inflationary. would you buy gold? >> day with gold, buy gold shares, and junior gold high mi. we would go with a little gold to keep you from slitting your wrists the night before the berlin wall falls. >> will the market rally then? >> we had this massive move yesterday in front of that people are going to realize what that means. they have not done the job they were supposed to, it doesot